| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Bucknell | 49-13 | 1523.4 | +50.8 | 1574.2 | 91.0% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Utah State | 30-49 | 1572.9 | -70.1 | 1502.8 | 59.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Boise State | 37-49 | 1502.8 | -13.3 | 1489.5 | 28.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 35-44 | 1489.5 | -31.5 | 1458.0 | 56.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Navy | 31-34 | 1458.0 | +27.7 | 1485.7 | 20.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UNLV | 48-51 | 1485.7 | +19.4 | 1505.1 | 27.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-21 | 1505.1 | +2.6 | 1507.7 | 51.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Army | 17-20 | 1510.2 | -17.0 | 1493.2 | 39.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | San José State | 26-16 | 1493.2 | +38.1 | 1531.3 | 46.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UConn | 16-26 | 1531.3 | -15.9 | 1515.4 | 35.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | New Mexico | 3-20 | 1515.4 | -30.5 | 1484.9 | 45.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Colorado State | 42-21 | 1484.9 | +33.3 | 1518.2 | 61.8% |